Maybe Kevin Lowe Isn't So Dumb?

BOULDER, Colorado -- I was pretty harsh on Edmonton Oilers GM Kevin Lowe for signing winger Dustin Penner to a US$21.25 million, five-year offer sheet this summer (you can read the post here). But in their most recent issue (October 23), The Hockey News offers some compelling evidence that Lowe's move maybe wasn't so dumb after all.

For years, the NHL's salary structure foolishly rewarded players for past, rather than future, performance; as a result, the highest paid players in the league were aging stars well past their prime (for an example of this, see the 1997-2004 New York Rangers). Only time will tell if Lowe's gamble on Penner will pay off - he currently has two points through eight games for the Oilers - but historically, you're better off spending your money on younger players than on the likes of unrestricted free agent Peter Forsberg.

Here's the evidence from The Hockey News:

"Consider the fate of the NHL's top 100 all-time scorers:

- 86 percent of their 40-goal seasons occurred when the players were under 30.
- Only 24 percent of the time did these players reach 80 points in a season after the age of 30.
- 61 percent of the point leaders and 52 percent of the goal leaders set their career high in points or goals by the age of 25.

Meantime, the majority of players at the top of the NHL scoring lists are in their 20s. Over the past 20 years, 85 percent of players in the top 10 were 30 or under - and only six times has a player over 34 finished in the top 10."

And those six seasons belong to Wayne Gretzky, Joe Sakic (each with two), Ron Francis and Mario Lemieux. So unless someone like that is up for grabs, save your money and spend it on some youngsters (like Tampa's Brad Richards). And this will only get easier to do with the age of free agency set to fall to 27.

Although Lowe was excoriated for inflating salaries with the Penner deal, maybe he has set the NHL is the right direction towards the true (young) stars getting the biggest rewards, rather than wasting millions on aging underachievers. A look down the salary listings for this season shows the trend is in that direction in the salary cap era.