Maybe Kevin Lowe Isn't So Dumb?

BOULDER, Colorado -- I was pretty harsh on Edmonton Oilers GM Kevin Lowe for signing winger Dustin Penner to a US$21.25 million, five-year offer sheet this summer (you can read the post here). But in their most recent issue (October 23), The Hockey News offers some compelling evidence that Lowe's move maybe wasn't so dumb after all.

For years, the NHL's salary structure foolishly rewarded players for past, rather than future, performance; as a result, the highest paid players in the league were aging stars well past their prime (for an example of this, see the 1997-2004 New York Rangers). Only time will tell if Lowe's gamble on Penner will pay off - he currently has two points through eight games for the Oilers - but historically, you're better off spending your money on younger players than on the likes of unrestricted free agent Peter Forsberg.

Here's the evidence from The Hockey News:

"Consider the fate of the NHL's top 100 all-time scorers:

- 86 percent of their 40-goal seasons occurred when the players were under 30.
- Only 24 percent of the time did these players reach 80 points in a season after the age of 30.
- 61 percent of the point leaders and 52 percent of the goal leaders set their career high in points or goals by the age of 25.

Meantime, the majority of players at the top of the NHL scoring lists are in their 20s. Over the past 20 years, 85 percent of players in the top 10 were 30 or under - and only six times has a player over 34 finished in the top 10."

And those six seasons belong to Wayne Gretzky, Joe Sakic (each with two), Ron Francis and Mario Lemieux. So unless someone like that is up for grabs, save your money and spend it on some youngsters (like Tampa's Brad Richards). And this will only get easier to do with the age of free agency set to fall to 27.

Although Lowe was excoriated for inflating salaries with the Penner deal, maybe he has set the NHL is the right direction towards the true (young) stars getting the biggest rewards, rather than wasting millions on aging underachievers. A look down the salary listings for this season shows the trend is in that direction in the salary cap era.

Oilers' Lowe Desperate to Save Job

QUECHEE, Vermont -- It's been nearly four months since my last post, but I've been working diligently to launch the new and improved Bandy Central website. But the bandy season is fast approaching, and the posts will start up again even while the new site is still under construction. But before we get into the bandy news (something is really brewing in Kazan ... news coming soon), I had to comment on some of Friday's developments in the National Hockey League.

Edmonton Oilers GM Kevin Lowe submitted an offer sheet to Anaheim restricted free agent Dustin Penner for US$21.25 million over five years.

Penner possesses imposing size and good hands around the net, netting 29 goals while playing on the second line of the Stanley Cup champs; some have even compared the 245-lb, 24-year-old to a young John LeClair or Todd Bertuzzi. But Penner has only one full season of NHL service, and the offer would increase the left winger's salary nearly 10-fold per season over the league-minimum $450,000 he received in 2006-07.

Ducks GM Brian Burke was rightfully irked by the offer sheet, which he referred to as a "gutless" move by Lowe.

"I have no problem with offer sheets," Burke said, as reported by the Associated Press. "If you can identify a player and pay him appropriately and make him an offer, that's fine. At some point, the deals you make, the offers you extend, whether the team matches it or not, impacts all 30 teams, including your own," he added.

Another of Burke's comments struck more to the heart of the matter, though: "It was an act of desperation by a general manager fighting to keep his job," he said, according to the Globe and Mail.

Lowe has been scrambling during this free agent season to find players to help improve his failing club. Last season, Lowe's team landed 25 points out of the playoffs, just one year after coming within a game of the Stanley Cup title.

In addition to this latest move, earlier this month Lowe offered $50 million over seven years to Buffalo's Tomas Vanek. While Vanek is a legitimate NHL star, netting 42 goals for the club with the league's best record last year, $7 million per season is quite a price to pay for a player with only two years of NHL experience.

But then again, Buffalo GM Dacy Regier may have found himself in the same position as Lowe - with lots of salary cap room and nothing to spend it on. With the departure of captains Chris Drury and Daniel Briere, it was a no-brainer for Buffalo to match any offer for Vanek, no matter how generous.

As in most sports, every off-season some GMs look to make a big splash with big signings, no matter how weak the free agent class. Lowe clearly missed the big fish, and now he's looking to grab headlines by overpaying for a second-liner.

The NHL's salary cap was supposed to reign in player salaries that had spiraled out of control. What we are seeing now is the teams that haven't yet learned how to manage the cap - in addition to drafting poorly and trading poorly - are left with gaping holes in their payroll that they are willing to fill with anything that comes along, no matter the price.

Burke has not said what he is going to do about Penner. Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne are leaning towards retirement, which would give Anaheim much more cap room and the means to match Edmonton's sheet, but Burke has said that Anaheim's initial offer to Penner was nowhere close to the Edmonton offer sheet.

Hopefully, Burke will have more sense than to match the Oilers' offer. Let Penner go for crazy money, and let Lowe dig his own grave when his team misses the playoffs yet again.

Update: The Anaheim Ducks chose not to match Edmonton's offer to Penner, meaning the winger is now an Oiler, the Associated Press reported August 3. In exchanger for signing him, Edmonton must give up its first, second and third round draft picks in 2008 to the Ducks.

"We don't believe these salaries make sense. If I believe these salaries don't make sense and I match, then I'm just as dumb as the team that extended the offer," said Anaheim GM Brian Burke.